
Clinton:
1. New York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio, and Texas
2. A sustained national polling lead
3. closed primaries in which only Democrats vote
4. perceived experience
5. white, Hispanic, and low-income voters
Obama:
1. “Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton” will never sound like change
2. the media is (passionately) on his side
3. Maryland, Virginia, Wisconsin, and caucus states
4. Internet money
5. a loyal, ardent, focused staff
McCain:
1. the national security card
2. the media is (cozily) on his side
3. experience
4. open primaries
5. Gov. Charlie Crist
Romney:
1. his (still vast) bank account
2. virulently anti-McCain Republicans who will champion him by default in a one-on-one race
3. the rising salience of the economic issue and his crisp CEO argument
4. talk radio
5. vigor and acute drive
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